Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Walker administration projects US job growth 50% faster than Wisconsin's

National media, state reporters and all opinion-makers who respect solid numbers over campaign rhetoric should acknowledge and spread widely the recent official economic forecast for the state released by Scott Walker's cabinet-level Wisconsin Department of Revenue.

It says, among other fact-based conclusions:

Wisconsin employment will grow 1.5% in 2015, while the national employment increases 2.3%. 
So the US jobs growth rate will exceed the Wisconsin rate by 50%.

Several charts in the same report at the same site go into greater detail, but there's no way Walker can continue to sell, as he continues to spin out there nationally that the state's lagging job growth makes Wisconsin under his leadership a model to replicate.

Taken together with other recent findings, it's clear that Walker's trickle-down tax cuts have not stimulated business to create jobs here, and boasts that job growth in Wisconsin would "skyrocket" under his administration and ideology were wrong.

If his 'plan' had worked, the state would not have missed its budgetary revenue projection or found it necessary to skip more than $100 million in debt payments to keep its budget balanced, as the law requires.

Middle-class incomes are disappearing faster in Wisconsin than in any other state, non-partisan, independent data analysis is showing and Wisconsin's falling ratings measured against other states have repeatedly been documented.

I strongly recommend UW-M professor Marc Levine's assessment of the state economy under Walker, here:
Between March 2012 and March 2015 (the most recent three-year period available), employment grew in Wisconsin by 3.65%; nationally, it increased by 5.57%. Put another way, employment growth in Wisconsin has been at less than two-thirds the national rate over the past three years. 
And also the in-depth analysis of Wisconsin's performance under Walker at the number-crunching website Econbrowser, here:
More on Wisconsin’s lagging performance relative to the Nation, here and here.  
Since tax revenues have failed to surge as the Republicans had hoped, it is likely further spending cuts will be implemented. As I have observed in the past, spending cuts are likely to be contractionary in the short run, making it even less likely that employment will continue to grow rapidly. 


my5cents said...

It will get worse with the next round of tax cuts for corporations too. He intends for corporations in Wisconsin to pay zero tax.

Anonymous said...

What? Facts!? Say it aint so. Someone will take the fall for this major mistake.

Though staff probably couldn't get a line through to the chief to hear how they should spin a fact into a lie while still claiming to be an eagle scout. Liar #TW

Anonymous said...

This is a nonsensical argument. You can't just go around comparing percentage increases in employment with any more legitimacy than you could compare number increases in employment. Wisconsin's unemployment rate is lower than the national average. Any reasonable person understands that there will always be some base level of unemployment as people are in transition, so it isn't realistic to aim for 100% employment. That would actually be undesirable as it would mean that there is no mobility in the job market. The fact is that there is more room for the average employment numbers to move than there is in Wisconsin, so a larger percentage improvement doesn't mean that the US is doing better on average. Indeed, it could very much indicate that the US average LAGS Wisconsin over time.

If I'm getting a 95% in a Stats class and you're getting a 70%, and then we take a test and get our grades back and you're now getting a 73.2% and I'm getting 96.1%, then while it is factually accurate to say that you improved by a greater percentage than I, that doesn't mean that you're doing better than I am. Again, you have more room to move up, while I, on the other hand, have a ceiling as far as improvement potential is concerned. Given that I was never at 100%, I will always be under 100%, and so my gains will be marginal. Still, I'd take my score over yours, even in consideration of the fact that you had a higher percentage improvement.

All I'm saying is that while there is plenty to complain about with Walker, this isn't an argument that you should make. It doesn't hold water and it hurts your credibility. You're smarter than this.

Jake formerly of the LP said...

Actually, you're the one being silly. Minnesota didn't get it as bad as us in the recession, but has done much better coming out of the recession, post from UW's Menzie Chinn showed.

Walker's a fiscal and economic FAILURE that has held this state back. Admit it and own it.