State Jobs Projection Suggests Walker's 250,000 Jobs Bet In Doubt
According to this State Revenue Department report - - page 5 of Summer 2011 report, bottom of the chart - - Wisconsin will have 148,000 new jobs statewide by 2014.
Walker's pledge: to create 250,000, at a minimum.
Forcing public spending cuts and the state and local levels, which will also bring layoffs, also will depress the economy.
And the report from his cabinet agency says five of the 12 large urban metro areas of the state - - Janesville, Racine, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan and Wausau - - will not be recovering and will lag behind their 2007 levels.
By 2014, seven of the 12 MSA should have employment levels above those of 2007, before the recent recession.
The Oshkosh-Neenah MSA sees the strongest growth, with employment in 2014 5.2% greater than its 2007 level. Madison employment will be 4.7% greater than it was in 2007, and Eau Claire employment will be 3.7% greater. Appleton, Green Bay, La Crosse, and Milwaukee should also see 2014 employment levels above their 2007 levels.And even if "statewide" means the 12 urbanized areas only, they account for more than 70% of the employment in the state, so it's unlikely rural Wisconsin will pick up another 102,000.
The remaining five MSAs will not recover by 2014. Janesville fares the worst, with employment 9.0% below its 2007 employment level. Wausau's employment should be 4.7% lower,and Sheboygan, Racine and Fond du Lac will also be lower than their 2007 employment levels.
What does Walker and Wisconsin need? A stronger national economy, which would mean political success for Pres. Obama.
7 comments:
How exactly are these jobs counted? Gross or net? In other words, how many net new jobs after we deduct for all the teaching and other public jobs eliminated, the 5,000 high-speed rail jobs we didn't get, and losses from other casualties of the brilliant Walker budget?
Yes--please account for the jobs lost. And replacing Doyle appointees with Walker cronys doesn't count, either.
The republican agenda has been to make Obama look bad for years now. It's in their DNA. For the republicans in Wisconsin to wait so long to extend unemployment benefits was unconscionable. They delayed the vote to make our president look bad but now to make the recalled republican Senators look good. Political moves at the expense of the unemployed! If you have even waiting for these unemployment benefit, how does it feel to be used by Walker?
And the GOPs' biggest goal in 2012 is to have Obama fail and lose the election- Scott Fitzgerald admitted as much. Blowing up the economy would go a long way toward those goals, but it conflicts with what Scotty needs here.
Watch for the DWD to fudge and constantly bring up "private sector" jobs as they cut the lights out of public sector ones- as if public sector workers don't pay taxes and buy things. And watch for Scotty to try to blame the bad national economy when Wisconsin starts lagging (oh wait, that already started 2 months ago- both the lagging and the passing of the buck).
And for how the jobs are counted- the teaching job cuts haven't hit yet. You'll just see that in August and September when the usual hirebacks don't happen. You'll also start seeing more of the bleeding from all the retirements in other public sector jobs from people who weren't going to deal with this d-bag calling the shots at their employer.
Even if half of those folks transition into "conultants" and add to the private sector job figures, half of them won't.
And that's a real conflict that James brings up, because Scott Fitzgerald admitted the GOP's goal was to have Obama and fail and win the presidency in 2012. Well, that requires a bad economy among other things, and so this helps to explain all the obstruction and budget games right now.
But this also sinks Scotty's chances of gaining jobs (not that his garbage will work anyway), so watch as he starts trying to pass the buck onto Obama for his and his own party's failures. (oh wait, that's already happening as Wisconsin's hiring has slowed to a crawl since March).
And Betsey, replacing one crony with another is a net 0 for jobs, as is having one of the many retiring state employees moving onto consultants (but it is "private sector growth"- as if that same person didn't buy stuff or pay taxes in their previous job).
These people see politics in everything, and any results are a very secondary factor. We need to be following them at every turn to hold them accountable for their bullshit. I have no confidence in Journal Communications and the other corporate media to do so.
Were the 250,000 jobs ever NOT in doubt?
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