Friday, July 19, 2019

NY Times explains why Trump may be stronger in WI

The New York Times looks at numbers which suggest Wisconsin is pivotal to the 2020 presidential election.

I'd throw in other things, like, say, addressing climate change, ensuring the survival of US democracy, and more. 

Data wonks weigh in.

Read the entire piece, as it also acknowledges Trump's strength in the reliably loyal GOP Milwaukee suburban counties.

Head shot of Trump smiling in front of an American flag. He is wearing a dark blue suit jacket, white shirt, light blue necktie, and American flag lapel pin.

While it's premature to make predictions, it's never too early to bury complacency:
Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign 
Wisconsin was the tipping-point state in 2016, and it seems to hold that distinction now, at least based on the president’s approval rating among 2018 midterm voters...  
A closer look at the underlying evidence suggests there’s reason to think the president’s ratings could be higher than estimated in the state... most measures suggest that the president’s rating is higher than 47.1 percent in Wisconsin. 
If you excluded the Votecast data and added the final Marquette poll, the president’s approval rating would rise to 47.6 percent — or a net 4.2 points higher than his nationwide approval. 

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