Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Polling Shows Dems Can Oust Walker, If...

...More voters in Milwaukee County get to the polls.

Period.

That's how I would interpret these tight polls.

In 2010, Barrett spanked Walker in Milwaukee County, but the turnout, at 48%, meant less than half the electorate voted.

By contrast, in Waukesha, the GOP stronghold, the turnout was 64%.

And Dane County's turnout was 59%.

So let's assume that Walker's union-busting provokes a greater Dane County turnout in the recall election, and the margin for a Democratic there expands  - - and let's also assume that  Walker racks up another big win in Waukesha County and the like-minded conservative base in nearby Washington and Ozaukee Counties, too.

The key to the election is Milwaukee.


10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Meaning, Barrett shouldn't be the Dem candidate because he won't inspire high turnout by announcing three days before an election for mayor that he's already running for higher office?

Paul Trotter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

The best candidate against Walker would be Peter Barca who starred in his role standing up to the Fitz mob when they tried to circumvent statutory meeting notice requirements. He spoke truth to power like like Jefferson Smith in "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington". Normally I guy like Barca is too nice for Big Time Politics, but against the Koch Brothers Barca would generate emotional devotion that Falk and Barrett couldn't match. Just an idea and probably too late.

Oneida Heights said...

Dont underestimate the impact of those parts of the state that are not subject to right wing Milwaukee radio. Without that propaganda, Walker really is mistrusted. With effective advertising the small cities should split 50/50 like Eau Claire, Green Bay, and Appleton. That would be bad news for Walker.

Jake formerly of the LP said...

Agree with Oneida Heights. In Milwaukee and Madison, the goal is to grow turnout (and I don't think they'll have much problem doing so after Walker has specifically tried damaging those parts in the state). The rest of the state, it is to battle and keep exposing Walker's corruption and failed policies. Having just been in much of La Crosse County, there's definitely more "Recall Walker" signs than "Stand with Walker" signs, and I bet it's the same in Eau Claire and much of Western Wisconsin.

Combine that with hard fighting in Appleton/ Green Bay, and I think things will go just fine. Remember, a shift of 5-7% (like from 57% Walker to 52% Walker in a county) is all that's needed for a realtively easy victory. The Dems need to have a 72-County strategy instead of the same old interest-group driven crap.

Anonymous said...

Amen, brother. I've spent the last 17 months saying that none of this would have happened if Milwaukee Co. had just shown up to the 2010 election. Now, question is -- how to make sure they GOTV this time?

Bill Kurtz said...

As for "standing with Walker," I'd paraphrase John Mellencamp: If you stand with Walker, you'll fall for anything.

Reagan's Disciple said...

Falk is losing to Walker in the polls 49-45 and outside of Madison, nobody really knows her yet.

Wait until the people know her better and then Walker's lead will be in the double digits.

As for Milwaukee being the key, it always is, which is also a reason why democrats are so opposed to the fraud curtailing Voter ID bill.

As a republican, I was slightly concerned with Walkers recall a few months ago. However, as time passes and the citizens see the positive impacts of Act 10, my recall fears have subsided considerably and I no longer believe he is in any real danger of losing an attempted recall.

I know I obviously could be wrong, but the candidates fielded by the democrats are simply not that strong. In addition, they will not have much time to get their ill-fated message out (which could actually be good for them).

tomkraj said...

Big Sand Box. 2 million eligible voters did not vote in 2010. Will we GOTV those folks?

Little Sandbox: Single females stayed home. Have they learned about Walker? The best people to tell them? Other women.

Little Sandbox: 30% said not to this question. Have you heard or read anything about the Milwaukee prosecutor's investigation, called a "John Doe" investigation, which has led to charges against several former aides or associates of Scott
Walker while he was Milwaukee County executive? This was asked AFTER they asked about support and who would you vote for.

zombie rotten mcdonald said...

to be fair, in that last election Milwaukee voters were conflicted because we were so grateful to be getting his ass out of the County Executive's office.

No such conflict this time.


Voter fraud? that's hilarious. Nobody has ever shown a single instance of actual voting fraud that has impacted an election (as opposed to invalid registrations, which rarely result in actual votes being cast).

Unless, of course, you want to talk about vote tabulation irregularities in Waukesha County....