Waukesha To Be Regional Jobs Winner: Will Water Add To The Imbalance?

SEWRPC will share the following draft study chapter and information Thursday at 4 p.m.with its Environmental Justice Task Force - - 540 1st St., Milwaukee at the Independence First building.

These draft findings by UWM experts show Waukesha County's future job market growing faster than Milwaukee's, so the Milwaukee Common Council and Mayor need to think through very carefully the wisdom and formulas of selling an economic asset - - Lake Michigan water - - to a Waukesha that has said it intends to add substantially to its boundaries and population through annexation and wider water service territory.

The UWM analysis was added late in the game as a demand by the Task Force after SEWRPC's water supply advisory committee spent nearly four years looking at water supply options - - but had not considered the socio-economic implications of moving Lake Michigan water to Waukesha and other parts of the region.

It's unclear if the UWM findings will change the advisory committee's draft recommendations that Waukesha get Lake Michigan water.

Chapter 3

JOB DISTRIBUTION TRENDS AND FORECASTS

INTRODUCTION

As part of the socio-economic impact analysis, the following question regarding implementation of the RWSP and its impact on job distribution patterns was proposed by SEWRPC:

• What impact, if any, would implementation of the regional water supply recommendations have on the overall distribution of job locations in the Region?

Access to a reliable, sustainable water supply is necessary not only for residential development, but also for commercial or industrial development and, therefore, has a potential impact on the distribution of jobs.

In addition to the population forecasts developed in SEWRPC’s Land Use Planning process, detailed job forecasts were developed to determine the existing and projected number, distribution, and types of jobs in southeastern Wisconsin

. Like previous SEWRPC forecasts, these forecasts were based on known conditions and trends, using data, including demographic data from the decennial U.S. Census; the forecasts set forth anticipated future conditions for the year 2035. The job projections were developed with corresponding population forecasts, to be used as the basis for current SEWRPC planning efforts, including the Regional Water Supply Plan. Similar to the population forecasts, SEWRPC projected a range of future employment levels—low, intermediate, and high—for the Region. The projection range was developed due to the high degree of uncertainty that coincides with any effort to forecast social or economic outcomes. The intermediate projection is considered the most likely to be achieved for the Region and was selected for use in the Regional Water Supply Plan (RWSP).

In order to satisfactorily identify and understand potential negative socio-economic impacts that may arise from the recommendations set forth in the RWSP, CED evaluated historic job patterns within the region and SEWRPCs job projections that were developed for the RWSP, for the communities selected for analysis.

JOB GROWTH PATTERNS AND TRENDS IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN

Existing Conditions in Southeastern Wisconsin

Historic job patterns in southeastern Wisconsin have been studied by numerous institutions and organizations, including SEWRPC and the CED. As part of its regional land use planning program, SEWRPC has collected data and reported on trends in jobs and employment in southeastern Wisconsin since its inception in 196_. CED and several other academic institutes and centers also study and report on local and regional employment trends. Many of these reports have come to similar findings, that over the past 40 to 50 years, there has been a significant change in job sector employment, from an economy that relied predominantly on manufacturing toward an economy reliant on services. Additionally, while job growth has slowed significantly in the historic urban centers, particularly from the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County, there has been significant job growth in the suburban communities and counties.

The movement from a manufacturing-based economy toward a service- or skills-based economy is prevalent throughout the United States. Wisconsin, and southeastern Wisconsin, is rather unique in that manufacturing continues to play a significant role in its economy. In comparison to many service sector jobs, most manufacturing jobs generally do not require extensive education or training. However, this is changing as the economic structure is changing, and the need for education and training will continue to impact southeastern Wisconsin’s ability to compete in the global marketplace.

At the regional level, studies indicate that both the economic and geographic shift has had a very negative impact on populations within the urban centers, particularly in the inner City of Milwaukee. As job centers shifted from the urban core to the suburbs, job accessibility has become a significant barrier to employment for those who do not have a personal vehicle, due to the lack of public transportation options. Additionally, as more and more jobs require post high school training or education, many of these jobs are “inaccessible” to those that either lack education or skills or lack the resources to obtain the skills.

A study by the CED focuses specifically on the impact that this historic shift has had on inner city people in Milwaukee

. Much of the study focuses on a geographic subset of the inner city, the “Enterprise Community”, the area most plagued by problems of poverty, crime, and joblessness. In 2000, unemployment in the inner city was about four times higher than the metro Milwaukee average. From 1970 to 2000, the population in the "Enterprise Community" dropped by 45 percent. This area has been plagued by joblessness, and in 2000," 59 percent of the working age population was either unemployed or not in the labor force, twice the suburban average.

Another study

published in 1998 by the CED looks at the City of Milwaukee and metro Milwaukee’s economic performance over time, as well as in comparison to 13 other large, Frostbelt cities and metropolitan areas. Most identified “Frostbelt” cities and regions include other Great Lakes or “Rust Belt” cities with similar histories. Key indicators showed that the metro Milwaukee region has experienced moderate comparable job growth between 1970 and 2000, and has done relatively better at conserving its manufacturing base than most big Frostbelt cities. Like all central cities in the Frostbelt, the City of Milwaukee has declined markedly since the late 1960s as the employment hub of its region, but in relative terms, the City of Milwaukee has done substantially better than most Frostbelt cities in holding a share of regional employment.

In 1998, metro Milwaukee had the 5th lowest unemployment rate of the 14 regions; the city of Milwaukee had the 5th lowest among the cities. However, the black unemployment rate doubled in both the Milwaukee metropolitan area and city between 1970 and 1990, and the disparity between black and white unemployment rates in metropolitan Milwaukee remains the widest in the Frostbelt, as has been the case since 1970.

The Great Recession

The global marketplace, as of 2009, is in the second year of what has now been dubbed the Great Recession. Although the long-term impact on southeastern Wisconsin’s economy is unknown, recent employment data indicates that the impact on southeastern Wisconsin is about average for the United States. Economic indicators are starting to show that the Great Recession is likely to have a greater impact on minority and ethnic populations, particularly black and Hispanic persons.

The Employment and Training Institute (ETI) at the University of Wisconsin Milwaukee conducts a periodic survey on job openings in southeaste rn Wisconsin; its most recent survey was completed in May 2009

. In this study, ETI concluded that there is currently an unprecedented job gap in the seven-county region between people seeking work and jobs available, and that the gap between job seekers and full-time openings is 13 to 1. This gap is most severe in the City of Milwaukee’s inner city where there are about 25 job seekers for each full-time job opening.

Based on the results of the 2009 survey, ETI concluded that technical or skills training are key for a majority of jobs available in the region and that the labor market for unskilled workers lacking a high school diploma or occupation-specific work experience has disappeared. In comparison to the prior ETI survey (May 2006), there were about 6,550 full-time openings for unskilled workers; in 2009, there were only 500 openings. Additionally, demand for unskilled, semi-skilled, and skilled blue collar workers has seen the greatest decline between 2006 and 2009, and full-time job openings in manufacturing saw their lowest point since the ETI job survey began in 1993.

County Level Job Distribution in Southeastern Wisconsin

Historic job growth patterns indicate that there has been trend toward decentralization of jobs from the historic economic and urban centers to the outlying counties between 1960 and 2000. Tables 3-II and 3-II show historic job growth patterns between 1960 and 2000 for the counties in southeastern Wisconsin, and Charts 3-II and 3-III show the changes in job distribution patterns by county. In 1960, there were about 673,000 jobs in southeastern Wisconsin; by 2000, this had grown to about 1,222,800, an increase of 549,800 jobs or 82 percent growth. Throughout this period, the types of jobs and the economy in the region had shifted from the historic reliance on manufacturing as the most dominant employment sector to the service industry and retail trade as the dominant industries. Manufacturing does, however, continue to play a significant role in the region’s economy and manufacturing jobs were the second highest sectoral category in 2000. Technical Report No. 10, The Economy of Southeastern Wisconsin, July 2004 provides a detailed history and analysis of jobs by sector within the region.

Table 3-I: Job Distribution for Southeastern Wisconsin

County	1960		1970		1980		1990		2000
	Jobs	%	Jobs	%	Jobs	%	Jobs	%	Jobs	%
Kenosha	42,200	6.3	42,100	5.4	54,100	5.7	52,200	4.6	68,700	5.6
Milwaukee	503,300	74.8	525,200	66.9	583,200	61.5	609,800	53.3	624,600	51.1
Ozaukee	10,200	1.5	21,300	2.7	28,200	3.0	35,300	3.1	50,800	4.2
Racine	49,900	7.4	64,600	8.2	81,200	8.6	89,600	7.8	94,400	7.7
Walworth	19,600	2.9	26,400	3.4	33,500	3.5	39,900	3.5	51,800	4.2
Washington	15,200	2.3	24,300	3.1	35,200	3.7	46,100	4.0	61,700	5.0
Waukesha	32,600	4.8	81,000	10.3	132,800	14.0	189,700	16.6	270,800	22.1
Region	673,000	100.0	784,900	100.0	948,200	100.0	1,143,700	100.0	1,222,800	100.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau

Table 3-II: Job Growth in Southeastern Wisconsin

County	1960	2000	1960 to 2000
			Change	Percent	Compound Annual Growth Rate
Kenosha	42,200	68,700	26,500	62.8	1.23
Milwaukee	503,300	624,600	121,300	24.1	0.54
Ozaukee	10,200	50,800	40,600	398.0	4.10
Racine	49,900	94,400	44,500	89.2	1.61
Walworth	19,600	51,800	32,200	164.3	2.46
Washington	15,200	61,700	46,500	305.9	3.56
Waukesha	32,600	270,800	238,200	730.7	5.44
Region	673,000	1,222,800	549,800	81.7	1.50

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau

Along with population growth, job growth among the seven counties has changed over the 1960 to 2000 period. In 1960, the vast majority of jobs, about 75 percent, were located in Milwaukee County. Similar to changes in population distribution, by 2000, Milwaukee County’s share of regional jobs had declined to about 51 percent. Although Milwaukee County had gained about 121,300 jobs, or the second highest number of jobs over this time period, its share of jobs steadily declined during this period and its average annual growth rate, factored over the 40 year period, was approximately 0.54 percent or less than the regional 1.5 percent average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau

Although each County experienced some level of job growth, parts of the Region have fared better than others. Similar to its population growth, Waukesha County experienced a significant increase in the number of jobs and in its share of regional jobs. In 1960, Waukesha had about 32,600 jobs, or less than 5 percent of the regional share; by 2000, the number of jobs increased, on average, by about 5.44 percent annual growth rate to 270,800, or about 22 percent of the regional job share. This is a gain of about 238,200 jobs or about 43 percent of the regional job growth; Waukesha County’s overall growth since 1960 was 730 percent.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau

Ozaukee, Walworth, Washington Counties also had significant gains in the number and share of jobs. Ozaukee County’s annual growth rate was about 4.1 percent, and its share of regional jobs increase from 1.5 percent to over 4 percent. Washington County’s annual job growth rate over the 40 year period was 3.56 percent, and its share of regional jobs doubled from about 2.3 percent to 5 percent. Walworth County’s share grew from 2.9 to 4.2 percent, with an average annual growth rate of 2.56 percent.

Comparatively, Kenosha and Racine Counties had modest increases, with average annual growth rates of 1.23 and 1.61 percent respectively, similar to the average regional growth rate of 1.5 percent. Although Kenosha County’s job growth tended to fluctuate between 1960 and 2000, it gained about 26,500 jobs over this period, about a 63 percent increase. Racine County gained about 44,500 jobs over this time period, an increase of 89 percent.

Labor Force Distribution in Southeastern Wisconsin

Similar changes are reflected in the historic labor force pattern for the region. Between 1960 and 2000, the region’s labor force had increased from about 636,900 to 1,008,400 people, a gain of about 371,500 workers or 58 percent. In 1960, almost 68 percent of the regional labor force resided in Milwaukee County; and although the civilian labor force in Milwaukee County grew by about 37,500 people, by 2000, its share had declined to 46.5 percent of the regional labor force. Milwaukee County’s labor force increased steadily between 1960 and 1990, but declined from 479,374 to 469,257 workers between 1990 and 2000. Although its total labor force increased by about 8.7 percent, the annual labor force growth rate for Milwaukee County was only 0.21 percent over the forty year period, compared to a 1.16 percent average for the Region (see Tables 3-III and 3-IV). All other counties fared better than Milwaukee County, and surpassed the regional average.

Table 3-III: Civilian Labor Force Distribution for Southeastern Wisconsin

County	1960		1970		1980		1990		2000
	Workers	%	Workers	%	Workers	%	Workers	%	Workers	%
Kenosha	39,726	6.2	47,171	6.4	59,625	6.8	64,192	6.9	77,709	7.7
Milwaukee	431,746	67.8	454,085	61.7	478,184	54.6	479,374	51.3	469,257	46.5
Ozaukee	14,438	2.3	22,105	3.0	34,468	3.9	40,114	4.3	45,219	4.5
Racine	54,947	8.6	68,255	9.3	84,330	9.6	89,356	9.6	96,861	9.6
Walworth	20,444	3.2	26,345	3.6	34,727	4.0	39,642	4.2	51,861	5.1
Washington	17,384	2.7	25,727	3.5	42,044	4.8	52,106	5.6	66,496	6.6
Waukesha	58,216	9.1	92,390	12.6	142,774	16.3	169,369	18.1	200,991	19.9
Region	636,901	100.0	736,078	100.0	876,152	100.0	934,153	100.0	1,008,394	100.0

Source: US Census Bureau

Table 3-IV: Civilian Labor Force Growth in Southeastern Wisconsin

County	1960	2000	1960 to 2000
			Change	Percent	Compound Annual Growth Rate
Kenosha	39,726	77,709	37,983	95.6	1.69
Milwaukee	431,746	469,257	37,511	8.7	0.21
Ozaukee	14,438	45,219	30,781	213.2	2.90
Racine	54,947	96,861	41,914	76.3	1.43
Walworth	20,444	51,861	31,417	153.7	2.35
Washington	17,384	66,496	49,112	282.5	3.41
Waukesha	58,216	200,991	142,775	245.3	3.15
Region	636,901	1,008,394	371,493	58.3	1.16

Source: US Census Bureau

Source: US Census Bureau

Source: US Census Bureau

Between 1960 and 2000, Waukesha County’s share of the regional civilian labor force significantly increased from 58,216 to 200,991 people or from 9.1 to 19.9 percent of the regional share. Waukesha County’s civilian labor force experienced, on average, a 3.15 percent annual growth rate over the forty year period. Washington County experienced the highest growth rate over the forty year period (3.41 percent average annual growth), and its labor force saw the second highest overall gains, with 49,112 people. The labor force growth rates in Ozaukee and Walworth Counties were higher than the regional average, with 2.90 and 2.35 percent respectively, and the growth rates in Kenosha and Racine Counties were similar to the regional average, at 1.69 and 1.43 percent respectively.

Unlike jobs that are tied to a geographic location, the labor force is mobile, and indicates place of residence rather than place of job. Although both Milwaukee County’s labor force population and general population decreased slightly between 1990 and 2000, its job growth continued to increase, from 609,800 to 624,600 jobs.

Table 3-V: Year 2000 County of Work for Workers in Southeastern Wisconsin

County	Total Number of Workers	Worked in County of Residence		Worked Outside County of Residence		Worked in Milwaukee County
		Number	Percent	Number	Percent	Number	Percent
Kenosha	72,053	40,489	56.2	31,564	43.8	2,260	3.1
Milwaukee	427,620	345,163	80.7	82,457	19.3	345,163	80.7
Ozaukee	43,555	22,469	51.6	21,086	48.4	15,057	34.6
Racine	89,494	61,020	68.5	28,474	31.5	12,906	14.5
Walworth	48,172	30,545	63.4	17,627	36.6	2,290	4.8
Washington	63,610	32,066	50.4	31,544	49.6	14,335	22.5
Waukesha	192,602	119,461	62.0	73,141	38.0	61,038	31.7
Region	937,106	651,213	69.5	285,893	30.5	453,049	48.3
Total Non-Milwaukee County Residents	509,486	306,050	60.0	203,436	40.0	107,886	21.2

Source: US Census Bureau

The Census also collects data on place of work and residence locations for workers by county. Table 3-V indicates that in 2000, approximately 70 percent (or 651,213) of the workers in southeastern Wisconsin resided within the same county that they worked. Of the workers that resided in Milwaukee County, 81 percent of working residents (or 345,163 workers), worked within Milwaukee County, while about 19 percent of the workers commuted outside of Milwaukee County for work. The other counties varied greatly in the number of residents who commuted outside of the county to work, but each of the outlying counties had a greater percent of workers working outside of their resident county. Excluding Milwaukee County workers, about 60 percent of the regional workers worked within their county of residence, while 40 percent commuted outside for work.

In 2000, about 48 percent of the regional workers worked in Milwaukee County. A significant portion of workers from outside of Milwaukee County worked within the County. In 2000, approximately 107,886 workers from the surrounding regional counties commuted into Milwaukee County for work, or about 21.2 percent of the regional workers that reside outside of Milwaukee County. About 34.6 percent of Ozaukee County workers and 31.7 percent of Waukesha County workers commuted to Milwaukee County for their jobs.

Community Level Job and Labor Force Distribution in Southeastern Wisconsin

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the US Census Bureau collect official data on jobs and the labor force. The BLS publishes a quarterly count of employment and wages reported by employers that covers about 98 percent of U.S. jobs through the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); this data, however, is only available at the county, MSA, state and national levels by industry. Although data on the number of jobs is not readily available from either the BLS or the Census at the “Place” level, data on the labor force (number of people working) is available through the Census.

Table 3-VI: Civilian Labor Force Distribution for Selected Communities in Southeastern Wisconsin

Community	1960		1970		1980		1990		2000
	Workers	%	Workers	%	Workers	%	Workers	%	Workers	%
Kenosha	20,407	3.2	31,950	4.0	37,344	4.3	38,996	4.2	45,875	4.5
Milwaukee	316,862	49.8	313,174	42.5	306,547	35.0	301,032	32.2	282,823	28.0
Oak Creek	3,297	0.5	5,534	0.8	8,850	1.0	11,228	1.2	16,774	1.7
Port Washington	2,428	0.4	3,395	0.5	4,444	0.5	5,131	0.5	5,746	0.6
Racine	36,293	5.7	39,310	5.3	41,126	4.7	40,502	4.3	38,679	3.8
Brookfield	6,981	1.1	12,582	1.7	16,967	1.9	18,061	1.9	19,353	1.9
Cedarburg	1,988	0.3	3,195	0.4	4,628	0.5	5,586	0.6	5,792	0.6
Elm Grove	1,542	0.2	2,728	0.4	3,150	0.4	2,909	0.3	2,746	0.3
Germantown*	NA	NA	2,675	0.4	5,795	0.7	8,057	0.9	10,552	1.0
Grafton	1,344	0.2	2,342	0.3	4,410	0.5	5,513	0.6	6,019	0.6
Muskego*	NA	NA	4,499	0.6	7,481	0.9	9,612	1.0	12,237	1.2
New Berlin	5,508	0.9	10,738	1.5	16,527	1.9	19,630	2.1	21,656	2.1
Saukville	NA	NA	NA	NA	1,728	0.2	2,074	0.2	2,558	0.3
Waukesha	8,199	1.3	17,073	2.3	26,734	3.1	32,400	3.5	37,056	3.7
Region	636,901	100.0	736,078	100.0	876,152	100.0	934,153	100.0	1,008,394	100.0

Source: US Census Bureau

Notes:

Year 1960: Total population aged 14 years and older participating in labor force.

Years 1970 to 2000: Total population aged 16 years and older participating in labor force.

Data for the year 1960 is not available for the Villages of Germantown and Muskego which incorporated in 196_ and 1964 respectively.

Based on population, economic data is not available for the Village of Saukville for 1960 or 1970.

Table 3-VII: Year 2000 Labor Force Composition for Selected Communities in Southeastern Wisconsin

Community	Total Population	Total Population Aged 16+ Years	Population in Labor Force*		Population Not in Labor Force**		Employed
			Number	Percent	Number	Percent
Kenosha	90,668	68,467	46,025	67.2	22,442	32.8	43,023
Milwaukee	596,956	442,845	283,052	63.9	159,793	36.1	256,244
Oak Creek	28,456	22,177	16,846	76.0	5,331	24.0	16,418
Port Washington	10,364	7,972	5,746	72.1	2,226	27.9	5,618
Racine	81,827	60,612	38,716	63.9	21,896	36.1	35,975
Brookfield	38,807	29,810	19,353	64.9	10,457	35.1	18,807
Cedarburg	10,775	8,298	5,817	70.1	2,481	29.9	5,715
Elm Grove	6,276	4,888	2,746	56.2	2,142	43.8	2,664
Germantown	18,234	13,822	10,563	76.4	3,259	23.6	10,286
Grafton	10,319	7,948	6,028	75.8	1,920	24.2	5,831
Muskego	21,393	16,110	12,263	76.1	3,847	23.9	11,835
New Berlin	38,362	30,008	21,662	72.2	8,346	27.8	21,039
Saukville	4,154	3,082	2,558	83.0	524	17.0	2,467
Waukesha	64,372	50,623	37,078	73.2	13,545	26.8	35,802

Source: US Census Bureau

*Population aged 16 years and older participating in labor force.

** Population aged 16 years and older not participating in labor force.

In 1960, almost half of the Region’s civilian labor force, 316,862 people or 49 percent, resided in the City of Milwaukee (see Table 3-VI below). By 2000, this had declined to about 28 percent or 282,823 people. Table 3-VII shows the composition of the labor force within the “selected communities” in 2000.

SEWRPCs JOB FORECASTS

SEWRPC has historically developed long-term economic and jobs projections for counties and urban service areas within Southeastern Wisconsin as part of its overall regional planning program. The first projections were developed in 1962, and the most recent projections are set forth in Planning Report No. 48 A Regional Land Use Plan for Southeastern Wisconsin:2035, published in 2006. The most recent projections were developed to project likely conditions for the planning year 2035. Other State agencies, including the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development and the Department of Revenue, have also developed job or employment projections. These projections however, are of significantly shorter term or are estimates for the State of Wisconsin as a whole. As of 2009, available job projections from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development end in the year 2016; those from the Wisconsin Department of Revenue only project to the end of year 2012.

Source: SEWRPC and US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Job forecasting includes an assessment of data on the existing and projected labor force, existing regional or local job trends, and the outlook of future industries or job sectors. Outside of SEWRPC, no other agency in the State of Wisconsin engages in developing such long range jobs and employment forecasting for the southeastern Wisconsin region. Although projections on both the labor force and sectoral outlook are based on region-wide trends and are therefore region-wide projections, SEWRPC has developed job projections for each of the seven counties and for each of the urban service areas within the region. Based on the availability of the data, CED chose to evaluate SEWRPC’s job projections in the context of county-level and urban service area-level job growth for the purpose of this study.

It must be noted that the most recent job projections developed by SEWRPC under the Regional Land Use Plan reflect base year data for the year 2000, but include data on jobs from the Bureau of Economic Analysis through the year 2003; this captures the effects of the economic downturn that began in 2001 following the aftermath of September 11^th. Most counties experienced a dip or decline between 2000 and 2003, with the exceptions of Kenosha, Walworth, and Washington Counties where job growth increased negligibly. Overall, regional job growth fell from 1,222,800 to 1,179,000 or a loss of 43,800 jobs or about 3.6 percent during this 3 year period.

Table 3-VIII: Projected Jobs Distribution for Southeastern Wisconsin

County	2003		Projected Jobs
	Jobs	Percent of Regional Jobs	2035	Change (2000 – 2035)	Percent Change	Percent of Regional Jobs
Kenosha	69,500	5.9	88,500	19,000	27.3	6.5
Milwaukee	589,800	50.0	628,900	39,100	6.6	46.0
Ozaukee	49,200	4.2	62,300	13,100	26.6	4.6
Racine	90,000	7.6	106,600	16,600	18.4	7.8
Walworth	52,300	4.4	69,400	17,100	32.7	5.1
Washington	61,800	5.2	78,900	17,100	27.7	5.8
Waukesha	266,400	22.6	333,700	67,300	25.3	24.4
Region	1,179,000	100.0	1,368,300	189,300	16.1	100.0

Source: SEWRPC and US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: SEWRPC

Under SEWRPCs 2035 planned employment for the region, between 2003 and 2035, SEWRPC projects an overall increase of about 16.1 percent in the number of jobs within the region, or about 189,300 jobs. Waukesha County will likely see the highest increases in jobs, with an estimated additional 67,300 jobs, followed by Milwaukee County with projected growth of 39,100 jobs between 2003 and 2035. Milwaukee’s share of jobs will decline slightly from about 50 percent to about 46 percent of the regional job share, while Waukesha’s share will grow from 22.6 to 24.4 percent. Each of the other counties share of regional jobs will continue to range from just under 4 to just over seven percent of the regional share in 2035. SEWRPC anticipates that the historic job trends will continue through the year 2035, but at a considerably slower pace than the trends seen between 1960 and 2000. It must also be noted that these job projections do not reflect the current and yet unforeseen impact of the current Great Recession.

Job growth projections are tied significantly to the population projection, as one of the determining factors regarding job growth is its labor force. Between 2000 and 2035, SEWRPC projects that the civilian labor force will increase from 1,008,400 to 1,144,300 or about 13.5 percent in the seven-county Region. SEWRPC anticipates that the regional labor force may be expected to level off, particularly during the middle of the projection period, as the baby-boom generation approaches retirement. Without an influx of additional people through higher rates of in-migration, this leveling-off of the labor force could potentially decrease the number of jobs that the regional population could accommodate.

Job Forecasts Based on Water Utility Service Areas in Southeastern Wisconsin

Although SEWRPC’s regional labor force projection was not refined for smaller areas of geography, such as county or community, job projections were developed for each urbanized service area. Under the Regional Water Supply Plan, the County projections were refined for each water utility service area, based primarily on an intermediate growth scenario conditions recognized under the Regional Land Use Plan. County-level projections were developed under low-, intermediate, and high-growth scenarios indicating a range of probable projections for the numbers of jobs. For each water utility service area, the job projections were developed based on the intermediate-growth scenario, considered the most likely projection.

Table 3-IX below shows the estimated number of jobs within each of the selected water utility service areas for the year 2000 and the year 2035 job forecasts. There are three methods in which job growth (or destruction) will occur within the utility service areas; new job creation (or conversely, job destruction), job migration or movement from outside of the service area, and job absorption. Although it is anticipated that some of the job growth will be based on job creation or migration within each utility service area, many of the utilities will experience job growth due to job absorption, as many of the selected water utility service areas are proposed for expansion and jobs currently outside of the existing service areas will be absorbed into the expanding service area boundaries. It is difficult to discern which type of job growth - creation, migration, or absorption – will have a greater impact on job growth within each of the selected utilities, other than to say that growth through absorption will not occur in service utility areas that are not projected to increase in size.

The job forecasts project that each utility service will experience some degree of job growth over the 35 year period, with the exception of Milwaukee Water Works. It is anticipated that the Milwaukee Water Works retail service area

will lose approximately 6,300 jobs, or decline by about 1.5 percent either through destruction or migration. The Milwaukee Water Works service area is not anticipated to expand over this period, and therefore, job absorption within its service area will not occur.

Aside from Milwaukee Water Works, each of the other selected water utility service areas is projected to experience some form of service area expansion. For example, the City of Racine Water and Wastewater Utility is projected to see an increase of about 1,050 jobs or about 1.8 percent. This job growth will be some combination of new job creation, migration, and absorption as its service area is anticipated to expand from about 22.3 to about 27.7 square miles

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Table 3-IX: Existing and 2035 Job Forecasts for Selected Water Service Areas

Community	2000	2035
	Jobs	Jobs	Change	Percent Change
Kenosha Water Utility	45,269	48,693	3,424	7.6
Milwaukee Water Works	410,929	404,650	-6,279	-1.5
City of Oak Creek Water and Sewer Utility	19,916	28,349	8,433	42.3
City of Port Washington Water Utility	7,092	8,933	1,841	26.0
City of Racine Water and Wastewater Utility	58,601	59,644	1,043	1.8
City of Brookfield Municipal Water Utility and Village of Elm Grove*	34,772	50,711	15,939	45.8
City of Cedarburg Light and Water Commission	8,120	8,754	634	7.8
Village of Germantown Water Utility	10,545	18,071	7,526	71.4
Village of Grafton Water and Wastewater Commission	8,473	12,662	4,189	49.4
City of Muskego Public Water Utility	4,344	8,068	3,724	85.7
City of New Berlin Water Utility	24,237	33,058	8,821	36.4
Village of Saukville Municipal Water Utility	3,306	5,245	1,939	58.7
City of Waukesha Water Utility	51,792	58,196	6,404	12.4

Source: SEWRPC

*Based on the analysis methodology, SEWRPC combines forecast jobs data for the Village of Elm Grove with the City of Brookfield Municipal Water Utility.

Of the selected utilities, the greatest increase in number of jobs is anticipated to occur in the combined City of Brookfield Municipal Water Utility and Elm Grove service area, with an increase of about 15,900 jobs or 46 percent. Again, much of this job growth within the utility service areas could potentially be based on absorption as well as job creation and migration. The proposed development of a water utility service area in Elm Grove indicates that no jobs located in Elm Grove are counted for the year 2000 data. Also, the existing City of Brookfield Municipal Water Utility service area (see Map __) indicates that, possibly, many City of Brookfield jobs are currently located within areas that are not served by municipal water within the City of Brookfield.

In 2000, approximately 19,916 jobs were located within the Oak Creek utility area; by 2035, it is expected to increase by about 8,400 jobs, to about 28,350 jobs through a combination of job creation, migration, and service area expansion. Similarly, job growth in Muskego and Germantown’s utility service areas are expected to increase by 86 and 71 percent respectively, also through a combination of job creation, migration, and absorption.

Because there is a discrepancy between job growth through actual job creation or migration, and through service area expansion and absorption, a more meaningful method to compare job growth within the service areas is by measuring existing and projected jobs per capita (see Table 3-X below); in this case, the data was normalized to reflect the number of jobs per 100 persons. Although not the best method for comparing projected job growth within a community, this measure can give an indication of the direction that job growth is projected to occur within the service area relative to projected population growth.

Based on this assessment, the ratio of jobs to people is projected to either decline or remain unchanged in most of the selected communities. Most likely, a decline is a reflection of the aging of the population, as by the year 2035, it is anticipated that a smaller proportion of the population will be between the ages of 16 and 64, or of prime working age. Between 2000 and 2035, population is expected to increase while jobs are projected to decline in the Milwaukee Water Works service area where the ratio of jobs to people is projected to decrease very slightly, from 63 to 61 per 100 persons. In 2000, the City of Muskego had about 56 jobs for every 100 people; although both the number of people and jobs is projected to grow, it is anticipated that its population growth will outpace any job growth, and that by 2035, there will be only about 28 jobs for every 100 people within the City of Muskego Public Water Utility service area.

Table 3-X: Existing and Forecast Population for Selected Water Service Areas

	2000			2035
Community	Population	Jobs	Jobs Per 100 Persons	Population	Jobs	Jobs Per 100 Persons
Kenosha Water Utility	98,700	45,269	45.9	105,100	48,693	46.3
Milwaukee Water Works	650,750	410,929	63.1	664,550	404,650	60.9
City of Oak Creek Water and Sewer Utility	26,000	19,916	76.6	50,850	28,349	55.8
City of Port Washington Water Utility	10,600	7,092	66.9	15,000	8,933	59.6
City of Racine Water and Wastewater Utility	103,800	58,601	56.5	113,500	59,644	52.5
City of Brookfield Municipal Water Utility and Village of Elm Grove*	30,249	34,772	115.0	51,600	50,711	98.3
City of Cedarburg Light and Water Commission	11,250	8,120	72.2	14,900	8,754	58.8
Village of Germantown Water Utility	15,050	10,545	70.1	23,450	18,071	77.1
Village of Grafton Water and Wastewater Commission	10,500	8,473	80.7	16,450	12,662	77.0
City of Muskego Public Water Utility	7,800	4,344	55.7	28,650	8,068	28.2
City of New Berlin Water Utility	30,100	24,237	80.5	41,300	33,058	80.0
Village of Saukville Municipal Water Utility	4,150	3,306	79.7	5,650	5,245	92.8
City of Waukesha Water Utility	65,000	51,792	79.7	88,500	58,196	65.8

Source: SEWRPC and CED

*Based on the analysis methodology, SEWRPC combines forecast jobs data for the Village of Elm Grove with the City of Brookfield Municipal Water Utility. Job estimates are based on both the City of Brookfield Municipal Water Utility and the Village of Elm Grove sewer service area. The year 2000 population projections include the estimate of 24,000 people served by the City of Brookfield Municipal Water Utility and the estimated population of the Village of Elm Grove served by municipal sewer, or 6,249 people.

Jobs per capita are projected to increase in only three of the selected utility service areas; the Kenosha Water Utility, the Village of Germantown Water Utility, and the Village of Saukville Municipal Water Utility. The ratio of jobs to people should increase very slightly for the Kenosha Water Utility from 2000 to 2035, with about 46 jobs for every 100 people. Comparatively, this is the lowest estimate of jobs per capita amongst the 14 service areas for the year 2000. Historic trends within Kenosha County indicate that a significant number of Kenosha City and County residents work outside of the City of Kenosha and outside of Kenosha County (most significantly in northern Illinois)

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Water-Intensive Industries

All commercial and industrial businesses and industries use water in one form or another, but most would not be considered water-intensive users. Although water-intensive industries have not been conclusively identified in southeastern Wisconsin, a review of the 2007 County Business Patterns indicates the county locations of some of the industries identified with water-intensive production needs. Currently, the most water-intensive industries located in southeastern Wisconsin include brewing and bottling manufacturers, mining, thermoelectric power generators, and agriculture. Additionally, there are some large food processors and manufacturers located within the region that most likely rely on large quantities of water for production.

Many of the largest water users do not rely on the use of municipal water. Instead, they rely on private high-capacity wells for groundwater, which are regulated by the Department of Natural Resources. Information regarding these high-capacity wells and their estimated water use was compiled during the RWSP planning process and is available in Chapter 3 of SEWRPC’s Planning Report 52. Some of these water-intensive industries, however, involve cycling groundwater; for example, groundwater is withdrawn but then sprayed on crops for agricultural practices and therefore most of the groundwater is returned in the production process.

By far the most intensive water-using industries are those that generate thermoelectric power, and most of these plants are located within the Lake Michigan watershed and rely on Lake Michigan water as the source. Within the region, there are two We Energies’ “peaking plants” that rely on groundwater, one in the Town of Paris, and the other in the Village of Germantown. The two peaking plants are used intermittently, only during periods of peak demand, and therefore, water use is also intermittent, and the spent water is cycled back to its source. Additionally, there are several quarries in the region that are water-intensive; these too involve a process of recycling groundwater, and all quarries rely on private high capacity groundwater wells that are operated by individual industries and regulated by the Department of Natural Resources.

A review of existing large businesses located within the selected 9 communities indicates that there are currently no known major water-intensive businesses or industries located within the 9 communities that rely on municipal groundwater. Almost all of the existing bottling and brewing/beverage manufacturers in southeastern Wisconsin are located within the Lake Michigan basin, with the exception of one water bottling plant, Cascade Springs, in the Village of Mukwonago. Additionally, there are also some large food production manufacturers in the region that rely on large amounts of water for their production; some of these plants are located within utility service areas, yet some are located outside of water utility service areas and rely on private high-capacity wells.

For any industry that relies on water, it is assumed that the cost of water as well as the water quality should have some impact on their choice of production location. This could, however, change depending upon any water sales agreement determining the amount of water supplied to such community, and any agreement regarding return flow. Much of this is yet to be determined, and would be under the scrutiny of the terms of the Great Lakes Compact and would be subject to regulations that would need to be set forth by the Department of Natural Resources and the Wisconsin Public Service Commission.