Saturday, October 3, 2015

Epic rain event forecast for S. Carolina; warming climate cited

I appreciate that this weather and science site does not mince words:
According to NOAA's Precipitation Frequency Data Server, these could be 1-in-1000 year rains for some locations. (Hydrologists would refer to a 1-in-1000-year rain as having a typical "recurrence interval" of 1000 years. The idea is that such events are not always separated by 1000 years; the same amount of rain could conceivably occur the very next year, or might not occur until thousands of years later.) The three-day 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 17.1", 17.8", and 14.2", respectively. The 24-hour 1-in-1000 year rainfall amounts for Charleston, Greenville and Columbia are 14.8", 15.9", and 12.5", respectively... 
If the NWS precipitation forecasts are in the right ballpark, then the first few days of October 2015 might approach or even exceed these all-time monthly records for the entire state--without any help from a landfalling hurricane or tropical storm!

And note the matter-of-fact reference to a "warming climate is making intense short-term rains even heavier..."
Our warming climate is making intense short-term rains (such as the highest 1-day totals) even heavier in many parts of the United States and the world, although less research has been done on trends in monthly rainfall.
And, for record, check out this 2008 blog posting

In 2003, EPA Predicted Heavier Rain Events

Then-Milwaukee Mayor John Norquist and I attended a conference in Chicago in 2003, hosted by Mayor Richard Daley, where officials from the EPA told Midwestern elected leaders that climate change models predicted heavier rain events.

The EPA officials were urging the Midwestern leaders to adapt their planning and spending to more aggressively confront storm water and related services because heavier, intense rains were going to become more frequent.

Part of the message was: forget the notion of the "100-year-storm." They'll come more often than that in the Midwest as the atmosphere warms.

Again - - this wasn't advocacy science or partisan scare tactics.

This was basic municipal planning/dollars-and-sense advice from people in the George W. Bush administration to Midwestern mayors offered as an inter-governmental service because climate change was going to hit cities' budgets and constituents in difficult new ways.


Anonymous said...

Rain rain go away, come again another day. You Walker haters now want to make a big deal out of a few rain showers that may just happen to cause massive flooding.

Don't you know that is what flood insurance is for?

Thank the LORD we have a brave leader like our son-of-man-like Scott Walker.

Joe R said...

A little off topic, but the National Weather Service forecast for Clemson and northwestern South Carolina says: "Heavy rainfall to increase across the western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia through tonight with potentially historic and life threatening flash flooding possible."

But would that dire prediction affect THE MOST IMPORTANT THING EVER? Nah. From CBS: "There was some question as to whether or not Clemson's scheduled game against Notre Dame on Saturday night would have to be rescheduled because of Hurricane Joaquin, but the school announced on Friday afternoon that the game will go on at its scheduled time."

Anonymous said...

More important news from NOAA:

"Current NWS Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Documents

NOAA’s National Weather Service has provided PMP guidance and studies since the late 1940s at the request of various federal agencies and with funding provided by those agencies. In recent years that funding has diminished and gradually ceased. As a result we are unable to continue our PMP activities. However, we will continue to provide copies of related documents on this site. We recognize that many of the current documents need updating. The Federal Advisory Committee on Water Information’s Subcommittee on Hydrology is examining this issue."

Note that the Hydrometerological reports referenced (HMR 51, HMR 52 and HMR 53) date from 1978, 1982 and 1980 respectively.

Mission Accomplished!

Jake formerly of the LP said...

This is satire right? I can.never tell with righties, as I can't reach that lack of self-reflection.