From Walker Tuesday Night: Finger-Pointing, and "No!"

Scott Walker is addressing the state Tuesday night in what he's calling a "Fireside chat," but I'm guessing this is less a signal that he's mismanaged things or is performing damage control, and more an effort to showcase himself to a national audience and build his image as an ascendant conservative force.

Knowing what we learned about Walker as Milwaukee County Executive, and know even better about him now, I think his speech will take one or more of these three paths.

1. He truly becomes FDR, assumes leadership, and takes initiatives to end the stalemate with Senate Democrats and public-employee unions.

That would mean speaking the words "I will negotiate," and "I will withdraw my attack on collective bargaining," and "I will stop saying "No" to everything."

The chances that this happens are about zero.

2. He could ratchet up the pressure on absent Senate Democrats by announcing a fresh set of legislative and policy threats. He blames unions, Democrats, Jim Doyle, Tom Ament, Barack Obama, Lee Holloway, light rail, voter fraud and Big Government back to the New Deal - - oops, scratch that - - for the state's economic woes.

That would stir his base, outrage the opposition, make news and make him the news, too. I'd put these odds in the high 90's out of 100.

3. Or, in a low-key, rehearsed and scripted delivery, Walker repeats his talking-point justifications, reiterates his refusal to negotiate - - now or ever - -  and says his 52-47 margin of victory in November was a 100% mandate to rule, not govern.

Those odds I'd put at 99 out of 100.

And if combines #2 and #3, the odds go to 100 out of 100, because they are both variations on "No," a simple and pure Tea Party message, which Walker has long mastered.