Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Polling, Then And Now

I put this up over at my spot on Purple Wisconsin.

Several polls came out today showing President Barack Obama with a lead over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, and Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Tammy Baldwin either running even with or leading the GOP candidate, former Gov. Tommy Thompson.

Some conservatives were particularly unhappy with the Marquette Law School poll showing Baldwin with a commanding lead, but if you think about it, none of this is especially surprising.

Baldwin has been on the air for months without challenge defining herself, and then defining Tommy while he was defending himself against harsh attacks in the primary from Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann.

Since the primary, Tommy has been relatively invisible - - pols have been gossiping for weeks about Tommy's campaign-trail AWOL - - while Baldwin has had a consitent presence on and off the air.

Baldwin, like Elizabeth Warren who is now running ahead of GOP Sen. Scott Brown in MA, got a decent bounce from her Democratic Convention appearance, while the only one who came out of the GOP Convention with lasting publicity has been Clint Eastwood.

Of note today was the criticism from the Right of the Marquette Law School polling by its lead researcher, Prof. Charles Franklin.

But conservatives were not questioning Franklin's methodology earlier this year when he was absolutely nailing the June 5th Scott Walker win in that campaign's closing days.
Polls don't determine election outcomes, and everyone can cite a poll here and there that was no where near the final vote.

But by and large, polls do measure things as thet are, and several polls today showed Obama with a lead and Baldwin with strength - - and these are not the numbers Republicans and conservatives want to see or believe could be true, given the caricatures of Obama and Baldwin the Right and its echo chamber have conjured.

Is it possible that the Obama and Baldwin that Thompson and Romney are running against are not the same candidates mainstream voters actually see?


Art Hackett said...

A Detroit News poll out today also has Obama up 14 points in Michigan. That lends credence to the Marquette Poll's results.

Jake formerly of the LP said...

If you live you whole life through hate radio and Faux News TV, and you tend to lack a clue when it comes to reality. May work in GOP priamries with 20% turnout, but not so good with the general public.