The Political Environment: Seven Hurricanes Predicted This Season, But...

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Seven Hurricanes Predicted This Season, But...

Is it really the way you want the spilled oil to be 'dispersed?'

7 comments:

Ron R said...: I remember the year after Katrina was suppose to be the most active hurricane season ever(Don't you remember all those storms). I need a job like predicting the weather. I know of no other occupation where you can be wrong 75% of the time and not get your ass fired.; May 28, 2010 at 12:38 PM
James Rowen said...: So I guess we should ignore scientists, correct? Read some tea leaves and toss some bones and hope for the best?; May 28, 2010 at 7:49 PM
Ron R said...: No James, I don't believe we should ignore scientists. However, I also don't think that the track record of these scientists in question is such that we should bet the farm on them. Our planet's systems are so complex and changing that predicting the patterns of weather and especially hurricanes has been shown to be a very imprecise science; May 28, 2010 at 9:12 PM
James Rowen said...: So what is your plan to improve the forecasting?; May 28, 2010 at 11:00 PM
Anon Jim said...: Based on the accuracy of their weather (and to a much worse extent climate) models, apparently reading tea leaves and tossing chicken bones would be as much if not more accurate.

I know, unless they waste billions of tax payers dollars on a given issue, the government is not doing it's job.

Right?; May 29, 2010 at 8:49 AM
James Rowen said...: I am always amazed at how you can twist so many observations. That's the trouble with being an ideologue: you do not see clearly or think creatively.

This data collection and analysis you dismiss for political reasons is used everyday by airlines, insurance companies, farmers and yes, governments - - local, state, federal - - for dozens of programs and services and decisions that make your life better and longer.; May 29, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Anon Jim said...: "That's the trouble with being an ideologue: you do not see clearly or think creatively."

Admittedly there is a lot of wisdom in that statement, especially if one looks in the mirror.

As someone who did my undergrad at a university with a meteorological dept, a couple of my friends in that program told me that they could accurately predict the weather out only a couple of hours and after that the projections degrade quickly.

Last time I asked them about it, over 30 years later, they said not much had changed.

I never said anything about near term weather prediction, just long term.

So twist that.; May 29, 2010 at 6:06 PM