Saturday, October 18, 2008

Data Show Obama Campaign More Active: Nov. 4th Success Predictable

Isthmus of Madison carries a fascinating piece by Phil Ball, long-time Wisconsin political activist - - and fine reporter, too - - that uses search tools and data from both campaigns' official web sites to prove the supremacy of the Obama ground game.

A mystery that no other writer attempted this bit of digging and analysis.

All in all, nicely done.

3 comments:

Pantograph Trolleypole said...

Then we see stuff like this. I hope people aren't too complacent.

http://pandagon.net/index.php/site/why_mccain_could_easily_win_this/#When:19:56:00Z

John Foust said...

I believe Obama has about 80 operatives working the state - one for each county, a few extra for the big cities. From what I see from the rep in Jefferson County (where Fort Atkinson is located, as mentioned in Phil's article), he's doing a great job of working with and supporting local candidates and hosting events that attract a lot of people for many reasons. He's multiplying Obama's influence by working with the volunteers for other candidates.

Phil Ball said...

Top 21 zip codes with the lowest 2004 average net capital gain/loss (pop 1,000+).
This is what stable America looks like. This is what Gov. Palin claims is
the 'real America', McCain country.
But the statistics from the the candidates themselves shows that this 'real America'
is out-organizing McCain/Palin by at least 10 to 1.
This also explains why the election may end in a rout, despite the polls showing
a tightening of Obama's lead; McCain could be leading Obama in voter support but
voter support means nothing unless the supporters vote. And it is clear that Obama's
voter identification and get-out-the-vote machinery puts McCain's to shame. In fact,
McCain apparently doesn't have any organization outside his media ads. His campaign
is a Potemkin Village of electioneering. 
The list shows the number of events for each candidate within a 100 mile radius
of each ZIP code, according to each candidates own web site.

Try some ZIP codes yourself. It's easy.
Go to the candidates' sites and look for the
'find events' button. The instructions are straightforward.

McCain's site: http://www.johnmccain.com/McCainNation/Find.aspx?zip=61605&dist=100
Obama's site: http://www.barackobama.com/index.php


1.  45416 (Dayton, OH), pop. 6,408
Obama-- 492                    McC--22  
4.  43963 (Tiltonsville, OH), pop. 1,296
Obama--231 McC--21
5.  48701 (Akron, MI), pop. 1,537
Obama--205 McC--22
6.  45203 (Cincinnati, OH), pop. 3,205
Obama--435       McC--23
7.  66607 (Topeka, KS), pop. 10,026
Obama--54 McC--6
8.  75968 (Pineland, TX), pop. 2,045
Obama--3 McC--3
9.  44127 (Cleveland, OH), pop. 8,403
Obama--243 McC--33
10.  95903 (Beale AFB, CA), pop. 5,638
Obama--320 McC--23
11.  12985 (Schuyler Falls, NY), pop. 1,187
Obama--55 McC--4
12.  73503 (OK), pop. 12,033
Obama-21 McC--6
13.  73105 (Oklahoma City, OK), pop. 4,879
Obama--30 McC--7
14.  62205 (Centreville, IL), pop. 10,343
Obama--84 McC--4
15.  12979 (Rouses Point, NY), pop. 2,450
Obama--41 McC--3
16.  81152 (San Luis, CO), pop. 1,309
Obama--22 McC--1
17.  29105 (Monetta, SC), pop. 1,203
2 Obama--84 McC--1

18.  50660 (New Hartford, IA), pop. 1,262
Obama--103 McC--0
19.  76105 (Fort Worth, TX), pop. 22,047
Obama--67 McC--12
20.  84314 (Honeyville, UT), pop. 1,188
Obama--389 McC--1
21.  61605 (Peoria, IL), pop. 18,529
Obama--30 McC--