Shades Of 1936

I heard a DNR specialist on AM 620 WTMJ radio this afternoon say the current heat wave was reminiscent of conditions in the summer of 1936.

Yipes - - that was a Dustbowl year.

Here's some July Wisconsin weather data.

Compare it to this chart of July, 1936 weather.

As The Journal Sentinel reported last week: 

This summer's heat wave is one of the four hottest periods ever for southern Wisconsin, the weather service said. It will rival the Dust Bowl years of 1934 and 1936 and the deadly 1995 heat wave, the weather service said in an excessive heat warning.

And we're not even at mid-July, let alone August.

And we're now in a "severe drought."

But from DNR managers on the big air qualty/water conservation/climate change/picture?

Mum's the word, though locals and the DNR need to reboot and refocus the discussion, what with a Lake Michigan diversion application on the table.
 
And everyone should drop out of Dr. Limbaugh's class:

In 1994 Rush Limbaugh declared, "There is no global warming going on," adding that scientists "admit" they "may need 20 years more data to prove it." Since then, Limbaugh has managed to shield his brain from 18 years of mounting evidence that humans are changing the climate. "Science has made enormous inroads in understanding climate change and its causes," according to the National Research Council's latest report assessing the state of climate science. "There is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities," the report said.

Another Dirty Air Day In SE Wisconsin; Info Deficits At DNR

And still no early warning system about unhealthy air, or leadership, forward-looking special publication by the DNR tying together for the public relenting bad air, causes of air pollution and climate change.

The drought is now classified as severe.

File at #BigDNRFail:

Advisory for Ozone (Orange)

Start Time:	4:17PM CT Thursday, July 12, 2012
End Time:	1:00AM CT Friday, July 13, 2012
Counties:	Kenosha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and Racine

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AIR QUALITY INDEX CHART

Air Quality Index (AQI) Values	Levels of Health Concern	Colors
When the AQI is in this range:	...air quality conditions are:	...as symbolized by this color:
0 to 50	Good	Green
51 to 100	Moderate	Yellow
101 to 150	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	Orange
151 to 200	Unhealthy	Red
201 to 300	Very Unhealthy	Purple
301 to 500	Hazardous	Maroon

Drought Should Refocus Waukesha Water Diversion Discussion

Federal officials today declared what anyone who's stepped outside in Southern Wisconsin has know for weeks: we're in the midst of a severe drought that's been building for a while.

Attention has turned to conservation - - watering restrictions and the like - - which, like all conservation goals and changes - - need good information and public buy-in to succeed.

Predictive science also indicates that Wisconsin's already changing climate includes rising temperatures, with rainfall likely concentrated in heavy storms rather than the routine pattern we'd come to expect.

More emphasis on conservation is a must.

With that in mind, local governments, state officials and the general public should re-focus the debate over the City of Waukesha's application for a Lake Michigan water diversion - - an application still under review by the DNR, but which has yet to identify a potential supplier of the water Waukesha wants.

That is, in part, because the City of Milwaukee does not want to supply water to four smaller communities Waukesha intends to serve in its proposed water service area supply plan. (More about that issue, below).

The added communities have not directly requested Lake Michigan water from Milwaukee - - one, the Town of Waukesha, has not agreed to join the City of Waukesha's application, adding a further complication - -  and while the City of Waukesha has implemented a water conservation plan, the smaller communities, to the best of my knowledge, do not have similar conservation plans or demonstrable goals and achievement.

So here are two suggestions:

First: Read the governing Great Lakes Compact documents. They are principally water management plans replete with requirements, standards and goals elevating conservation of a shared water resource - - documents approved in 2008 by the Wisconsin legislature, the other seven Great Lakes states, the US Congress, the US President, and Canadian officials, with whom advisory authority rests.

Here is a link and detail with two more links in pdf format from the Council of Great Lakes Governors, to which Wisconsin belongs. Diversion requirements begin on p. 7 of the Agreement (item 1 below):

The agreements include the following:

1. The Great Lakes—St. Lawrence River Basin Sustainable Water Resources Agreement (the Agreement), a good-faith agreement among the Great Lakes States, Ontario and Québec; that will be implemented in Ontario and Québec through Provincial laws, and in the States, through

2. The Great Lakes—St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact (the Compact), an agreement among the Great Lakes States that was passed into law through an interstate compact. The Compact came into force on December 8, 2008.

Second: Read at the DNR's web page about Compact implementing rules - - some unfinished - - that Wisconsin law in 2008 directed the DNR to write by 2011:

Areas not yet completed:

DNR 854 Water Supply Service Area Plans

CURRENT STATUS - Incorporating Public Comment into Final Rule
Public water systems that serve a population of 10,000 or more and withdraw water are required to develop a water supply service area plan by 2025. In some situations a plan will be required sooner if the system is in the Great Lakes basin and interested in increasing its withdrawal, or if the system is seeking a diversion of Great Lakes water. This rule will specify the procedures and requirements for these plans. Water Supply Service Area Planning Factsheet [PDF 47KB]

The DNR issued a public notice of hearings on the proposed rules, and held hearings Dec. 14th & 15th, 2010.

The proposed rule and supporting documents can be found on the State of Wisconsin Administrative Rules Water Supply Service Area Plans [exit DNR] webpage.

Contact Kay McConnell with questions regarding this rule.

Additional Administrative Rules

CURRENT STATUS - Drafting

• Water Use Public Participation – This rule will establish the requirements for public participation for proposals for diversions of water.out of the Great Lakes basin.
• Water Loss and Consumptive Use – This rule will establish the methods for determining the amount of water loss from different consumptive uses.

These rule drafts are expected to be available for public comment in winter 2012. Check back at this webpage or sign up for GovDelivery for notification regarding these rules.

Contact Steve Elmore with questions on these rules.

Both the Doyle and Walker administrations dropped this ball.

This is a bad time to be flying blind when water use, precedent-setting diversion requests and conservation needs are all on the table.

Update On Michigan Tar Sand Spill

A report blames the company and federal regulators:

Preventable safety blunders by the pipeline operator Enbridge and lax federal regulation led to the disastrous 2010 rupture and oil spill in the Kalamazoo River, the National Transportation Safety Board said Tuesday.

Corrosion and cracks overlapped in many areas of the pipeline, but the company failed to consider the problem in safety evaluations, it said. The pipeline spewed 843,000 gallons of oil sands crude into the river, soiling 35 miles of wetlands and waterways and sickening 320 people and nearly 4,000 animals.

The company has a history of spills in Wisconsin and a plan to add capacity to its state operations.

Details, here.

Obama's Expanding Lead In WI Means Only One Thing To GOP

An outbreak of pre-election fraud. Democrats are pre-stealing the election. They're using fake identities to get fake phone numbers and skew the latest Marquette University poll Democrat!

Just like they stole that Senate Seat in Racine and the whole state for John Kerry. in 2004.

How else could you explain the finding in data released yesterday in the Marquette University poll that Obama's lead over Romney has increased to eight from six points?

In the presidential race, President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 51 percent to 43 percent. In June, Obama had 49 percent to Romney’s 43 percent. The presidential race has remained stable since late May when Obama also led 51-43.

Talk Radio Gives Platform To Racist Callers

What did AM 620 WTMJ conservative talk show host Jeff Wagner think would be the reaction earlier Wednesday afternoon when he asked his audience between 1:15 and 1:30 p.m. to respond to and discuss a report that Milwaukee homicide victims were overwhelmingly male and African-American?

Wednesday evening Update: Here is the podcast:

I took these notes when driving:

Darla from Oconomowoc: "It's the whole black culture thing." Kids see thugs, "they become thugs."

Bill From Slinger complained about kids with low-riding pants.

Kurt (Curt?) from Sheboygan: "There is no morality in the central city."

Sandy from Racine about the choices "they" make: "This is what they know...this is how they live...They don't have any gratitude....This all starts at home."

I heard no one call in from the City of Milwaukee.

Wagner did say at one point that people shouldn't generalize, but as guidance to the audience, that was weak and disingenuous.

And he got in his licks at central city elected officials Wagner said weren't as outraged as he thought they should be, slyly talking about some from the same family (read: the Coggs' family, I suppose) - - a pretty gratuitous shot.

He knew what he'd stir up, and it appeals only to the fears of his audience while insulting everyone else, victim families included.

As Wagner is fond of saying in other circumstances - - just because you can do or say something doesn't mean you go ahead with it.

And also quoting one of his stock phrases: shame...shame - - on his program and Journal Communications for airing the 'topic' and callers.

WUWM-FM Adds Depth To Waukesha/Milwaukee Water Standoff

Reporter Susan Bence and Atty. Peter McAvoy talk in detail about the Great Lakes Compact - - the eight-state/two-nation water conservation agreement that governs whether the City of Waukesha (and perhaps parts of four small communities Waukesha says it will add to its water service territory) will be allowed to divert Lake Michigan water.

Hit the audio download button, here.

Primary Alert: It's August 14th This Year, With Consequences

Dom Noth explains:

For much of Milwaukee, the election is over August 14. Only the residents don’t realize it.

In seven contested Assembly districts and one contested Senate district for the Madison legislature, it’s only Democrats against Democrats – and winner takes all Aug. 14...

Redistricting games have turned familiar polling locations into shuffleboard. Whose district are you in? Bet many citizens don’t know. (The Government Accountability Board is scrambling to update databases so that Wisconsin voters can learn where to vote at vpa.wi.gov.)

Distinctive ideological differences? Even those don’t wait until November, when the top Democrat and top Republican face off in other races. There are ideological differences among candidates bearing the same party label, quite noticeable this August.

That means a lot of citizens will wake up August 15 dismayed that they lost a chance to create more aggressive representation, or failed to keep the good fighters from equally strong-minded company -- especially in a year when people finally noticed that who they elect to the Madison legislature makes a profound difference in their daily lives.

Credit Scott Walker and his minions for being the best recruiting tool the opposition ever had. The GOP heavy hand – heavy to even people in its own party -- broke the historic pattern of just letting the state legislature putter along. Social Darwinism stepped hard on natural evolution.

Hovde Taxes The Truth

I saw GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde's TV ad during Tuesday's World Series programming that claims American corporations are penalized by the highest corporate tax rate in the world - - and I thought, c'mon:

I know there's more to the story, once you get past his clever wording.

Yes, the US corporate rate is the world's highest, but actual revenue collected by the tax, as a percentage of a country's GDP, drops the US to nearly dead last, as this financial reporting explains:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. corporations pay one of the highest tax rates in the world. There's little debate about that...

In fact, the United States collects less corporate tax relative to the overall economy than almost any other country in the world.

And that's a more objective measure of tax burden. Different accounting rules around the world means what's counted as income in one country isn't counted in another -- that makes comparisons of tax rates misleading.

U.S. corporate tax collections totaled only 1.7% of GDP in 2009, the most recent year for which complete data is available, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

On that measure, the United States had the third lowest corporate tax burden, behind France and Germany. The worldwide average was 2.8%.

One reason U.S. corporate tax collections are low is that many U.S. small business owners file personal income tax returns, said Eric Toder, co-director of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.

In other countries, many small businesses pay both corporate and personal income tax. So a business owner in a country with a lower corporate tax rate could end up paying more than his U.S. counterpart.

U.S. businesses have another edge over countries with lower tax rates: They don't pay a Value Added Tax or VAT, a type of sales tax.

All other developed nations raise a significant part of their tax revenue through VATs, but it is not included in the comparisons of corporate tax collections.

'She's Not Talking' Unacceptable From Waukesha Clerk Nickolaus

[Thursday evening update: The glitch may have originated in a voting machine test ordered by state officials. Why Nickolaus didn't explain it is a continuing mystery.]

More questionable behavior is being reported by the Journal Sentinel about Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus, best known for misreporting 2011 State Supreme Court results that ultimately gave a narrow win to incumbent Justice David Prosser and gave a black eye to Waukesha County's reputation for fair elections and reliable results.

So it's unimaginable this story could be written a year later:

Sometime after final testing of Waukesha County's election software - but before the April election - County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus mysteriously changed something in her office's computer programming, according to a consulting firm's report released Tuesday.

Only Nickolaus knows what she did. The consultants can't figure it out, and she's not talking.

But whatever she did, it caused a breakdown in reporting election results that will cost county taxpayers $256,300 to fix, the report says.

Waukesha, you have a problem.

Climate Change, Extremes Have Human Causation, Science Says

Definitive science.

(CBS News) On Tuesday, for the first time, government scientists are saying recent extreme weather events are likely connected to man-made climate change. 

It's the conclusion of a report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The report says last year's record drought in Texas was made "roughly 20 times more likely" because of man made climate change, specifically meaning warming that comes from greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide. The study, requested by NOAA, looked at 50 years of weather data in Texas and concluded that man-made warming had to be a factor in the drought.

The head of NOAA's climate office, Tom Karl, said: "What we're seeing, not only in Texas but in other phenomena in other parts of the world, where we can't explain these events by natural variability alone. They're just too rare, too uncommon."

Aside from the Texas drought, NOAA called the entire year of 2011 the year of extreme weather events, starting in Joplin, Missouri...

All told, there were seven tornado outbreaks in America last year that caused a billion dollars or more in damages. There were increased hurricanes in the North Atlantic, unprecedented flooding in Australia but widespread drought in East Africa, and all of that was caused by La Nina. Typically La Nina is marked by a sharp cooling in the Pacific, but last year's La Nina was the warmest ever, and again the government concluded that global climate change played a role.

"What's happening is, these normal fluctuations between El Nino and La Nina events that lead to some of the extreme conditions, become more extreme, more intense than they otherwise might have been because we've got increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leading to a warmer planet," Karl said.

NOAA made a point of saying in their study that the climate change they've identified is man-made.

Going back 50 years, they know what temperature and dryness conditions are associated with Texas drought. When they put that in the computer, nothing explained the intensity and duration of what we saw last year in Texas until they factored in the added heat coming from climate change. You're going to see a lot of scientists criticizing this as a guess, but NOAA for the first time is arguing that this is science.

A Lot To Digest In WI Deer Czar's Report

Links to the summary and full report, here.

No comment yet from the DNR: One analysis from the AP, here.

MADISON — Wisconsin wildlife officials should scrap local deer population goals, let landowners hold mini-hunts on their property and establish better connections with the public, Gov. Scott Walker's deer trustee wrote in a report released Tuesday.

Texas researcher James Kroll's 136-page study focuses largely on the Department of Natural Resources' shortcomings but takes hunters to task too, saying they expect the agency to maintain a herd so large the landscape can't support it. His plan offers the two sides a chance to compromise and save Wisconsin's hunting traditions from disappearing, he said.

"This is a reset button," Kroll said of his recommendations. "If we're going to continue to have the hunting heritage in Wisconsin, we're going to have to do this."

Attack On Voting Based On "Unconscionable Lie"

Eugene Robinson tells it like it is.

The Republican-led crusade for voter ID laws has been revealed as a cynical ploy to disenfranchise as many likely Democratic voters as possible, with poor people and minorities the main targets.

There's your voting fraud - - election theft being planned right out in the open, with a side dish of Citizens United financing - - and Democrats need a coordinated and effective counter-attack defining this as Issue #1 now, or the 2012 elections, with more to come, will leave the far right and its 1% managing partner already propagandizing on the issue more or less permanently in charge.

The 2102 presidential election will be close. The electorate is split down the middle, so every suppressed vote gives the GOP an unconscionable advantage.

Voting Fraud Disinformation Mission Accomplished, Wanggaard Concedes

Defeated Racine State Sen. Van Wanggaard, (R), finally conceded this morning to June 5th winner Democrat John Lehman, but Wanggaard and the GOP have done their damage promoting loudly a phony narrative about voting fraud.

Legislative leader Robin Vos is among those spreading false information.

Why concede now?

The district has been redrawn and in 2014 will skew deeply Republican, so look for Van Wanggaard to run again; the longer he looked like a pure spoiler, the less attractive his comeback candidacy.

Romney Supporter, Without Class Frames The Election's Class Truth

She sums up "the systems" in this LA Times Sunday piece:

Donors arrive at Hamptons fundraisers with advice for Mitt Romney

EAST HAMPTON, N.Y. – As protesters assembled on a beach in advance of Mitt Romney's evening event at the home of conservative billionaire David Koch, the candidate slipped to East Hampton for his first of three fundraisers on this tony stretch of Long Island.

The line of Range Rovers, BMWs, Porsche roadsters and one gleaming cherry red Ferrari began queuing outside of Revlon Chairman Ronald Perelman's estate off Montauk Highway... 

A New York City donor a few cars back, who also would not give her name, said Romney needed to do a better job connecting. "I don't think the common person is getting it," she said from the passenger seat of a Range Rover stamped with East Hampton beach permits. "Nobody understands why Obama is hurting them.

"We've got the message," she added. "But my college kid, the baby sitters, the nails ladies -- everybody who's got the right to vote -- they don't understand what's going on. I just think if you're lower income -- one, you're not as educated, two, they don't understand how it works, they don't understand how the systems work, they don't understand the impact."

No Surprise The Party That Fielded Fake Recall Candidates...

Tuesday 8:50 a.m. update - - Wanggaard concedes.

Would consider going to court to challenge the recount the GOP lost of the Lehman (D) -  Wanggaard (R) election for State Senate in Racine they lost on June 5th.

Why?

To delay the Democratic Senate takeover achieved by Lehman's win by playing fast and loose with elections.

Again.

The ends justify the means for these people, even if they make fools out of themselves with inconsistency and contradiction.

Lake Michigan Running Hot Right Now

I suppose the "rare," record-setting escalating water temperature tracked by the National Weather Service and reported by the Journal Sentinel means more stinky algae growth along the shorelines, but can anglers tell me the impact on the fisheries?

Low Record Heat has Warmed Lake Michigan

The unseasonably warm weather of the past week along with the warm spring temperatures have contributed to Lake Michigan surface temperatures warming into the upper 60s to upper 70s.  The below image was taken Friday morning, July 6th, by the MODIS instrument package on polar-orbiting satellite Terra or Aqua.  Most of southern Lake Michigan had warmed into the 70s as indicated by the orange color. 

In contrast, below is the MODIS image taken one year ago, on July 6th, 2011.  Surface temperatures were about 5 to 10 degrees cooler, mostly in the low to mid 60s.

The graph below shows this year's average lake temperature compared to the previous five years. As you can see, this year is about four degrees warmer than the average lake temperature of the past five years.

In fact, the south mid lake buoy reached 80 degrees on Friday, July 6th. This is rather rare, as in the 31 years of data, a temperature of 80 degrees has only been recorded during six prior episodes. This is also the earliest 80 degrees has ever been recorded at the south mid lake buoy.*

It is also worth noting that during the past warm period between, July 1st and July 6th, the water temperature rose 10 degrees!*

Furthermore, the average water temperature at that particular buoy on July 6th is 63 degrees, while the average temperature record on July 6, 2012 was a whopping 78 degrees.*

*Information from a NWS Chicago Public Information Statement

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MBK/MEB
National Weather Service - Milwaukee/Sullivan


Return to Latest News

Talk Radio Continuing One-Sided Transportation 'Debate'

Charlie Sykes took another kick at rail again this morning - - one hook is the California train that is moving ahead with a generous contribution from Wisconsin - - and callers complained that trains don't pay for themselves.

And complained that some taxpayers who do not use trains have to contribute to train operations and construction.

What road pays for itself? I-94? I-43?

But through federal funding - - like the train money forfeited by Walker to California - - taxpayers from far away help pay to build, operate, and repair Wisconsin roads, too.

As do Wisconsin residents who do not drive, because gas taxes do not cover all road costs, which are supplemented with state income and local property taxes that also pay for patrol and plowing operations, too.

Any discussion of these realities?

If pay-as-you-go/turn-a-profit is the standard the right wants for trains, should tolls do the same for roads?

Can we rationalize this one-sided conversation built on a double-standard?

Nope.

Major Cities Growing Faster Than The 'Burbs

Basically, people are fed up with commuting.

And they like cities' walkability.

Ominous Forecast: Madison, WI Becomes New Wichita, KS

In light of the record heat gripping Wisconsin and much of the nation - - and with a number of counties suffering repeated alerts about unhealthy, ozone-polluted air- - I thought I'd check the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources web pages for information and discussion of these matters.

I did subscribe to the air quality e-newsletter, but It's hard to "stay informed" when the last issue came out seven months ago, with "winter tips."

Air quality and health news and subscriptions

Air News

• Subscribe to Air News

There’s always a lot happening to maintain and improve the air quality in Wisconsin. So stay informed by reading Air News - the DNR Air Management Program's e-newsletter - and learning about new rules, events, and actions that are being taken to reduce air pollution and help us all breathe a little easier.

• January 4, 2012 - FET seminars set for early February 2012; energy consumption and air quality tips for winter

This reflects the DNR's urgency-free management style on such things, to wit:

I'd noted a few weeks ago that the DNR had deleted most of the content from its primary web page about climate change, (way too much info about the Doyle administration's initiatives), and left there only one paragraph and link to a joint DNR - - UW-Madison collaboration, the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts.

Some sobering stuff there.

Using the Adaptation button, I found this:

Two terms dominate the discussion of climate change and how to deal with it.

One is mitigation – taking action to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases in an effort to reduce global warming.

The other is adaptation, which involves identifying and preparing for the potential impacts of climate change likely to occur even as we work to mitigate it.

The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts focuses on adaptation, and its Working Groups are the key components in those efforts. Each Working Group focuses on a particular issue, activity, ecosystem or geographic area to identify potential vulnerabilities and impacts, and to develop recommendations to increase resilience in the face of change.

A few possible examples of adaptive measures could include redesigning stormwater management systems to handle increasing volumes of stormwater; planting species of trees more suited for longer, warmer growing seasons; planting vegetation to provide more shade for coldwater trout streams; and developing heat emergency action plans to assist vulnerable urban populations during heat waves.

Some adaptation efforts will be reactive, handling situations as they arise. But WICCI strives to be pro-active, anticipating challenges and preparing for them ahead of time. Effective planning and preparation could help save wildlife, property, money and even lives.

Visit the adaptation science page to learn more about how these topics are addressed.

I sure would have liked to have heard from the DNR these past few weeks about "cutting greenhouse emissions" and "developing heat emergency action plans to assist vulnerable urban populations during heat waves."

The collaborative site also has a new interactive climate predictive tool that can show you what kind of climate your Wisconsin city could have by 2046.

For Milwaukee, the average of all the scientific models predicts a climate like West Virginia's.

Madison's climate change models predict climates that range from North Central Virginia to South Central Kansas.

Wichita, Kansas, Hello! We're talking 683 miles to the southwest.

And is a lot hotter, windier and drier than Madison's climate.


The linked site also offers a short audio and slide presentation that lays out Wisconsin climate change effects already underway - - temperatures that are already up a degree statewide (with measurable impacts), rainfall that arrives more often as two-inch storms, less snowfall - - and predictions of much greater annual temperature increases of 4-9 degrees.