We Can Assume Darling Assumes She's In Trouble

Recalled State Sen. Alberta Darling must have internal polling showing her to be in trouble because if she knew she held a comfortable lead she would not be campaigning from the gutter, and would not have had her Republican colleagues gerrymander her District so blatantly to pave the way for easier re-election, or a potential, 2012 comeback, as Craig Gilbert explained so succintly:

Under this plan, Darling loses the most Democratic parts of her district: Shorewood and fragments of Glendale and the city of Milwaukee. These areas are not just Democratic. They are intensely Democratic. They form the political base of the recall drive against Darling this year. The wards the Darling district sheds under the plan combined to give Republican Scott Walker a paltry 27% of the vote in last fall’s race for governor.

By contrast, the areas added to the Darling district under the new plan are in hugely Republican Washington, Waukesha and Ozaukee counties. These added wards combined to give Walker 73% of the vote last fall -- almost 50 points better than the areas they are replacing.

When you’re trading hostile territory for friendly turf, it’s pretty hard for an incumbent to do better than that.  (All the numbers used here are based on my analysis of the new map; in some cases the figures aren’t exact because the new plan divides some existing wards.)

What’s the net partisan effect on this seat? Darling’s district supported Walker last fall 54% to 45%, which was marginally better than Walker did statewide. Under the new lines, Walker would have won the district by 27 points (63% to 36%) instead of nine.

In 2008, a very good Democratic year, Obama carried the Eighth and Darling nearly lost it, winning barely over 50% of the vote. These changes would lock the district down for the GOP even in bad Republican years.

Even if the new map were approved next week, the new lines would not be in effect for the August recall elections. But they would apply in 2012, meaning that if Democrats defeated Darling next month, their odds of holding the seat next year would be poor.