This is a little easier than it was predicting plot twists in The Sopranos, but I'd put money on these scenarios:
John McCain, out. Fred Thompson, in, on the GOP side.
John Edwards out, Al Gore in, on the Democratic side.
For the same reasons.
Those departing can't keep up financially, and have supporters looking for candidates with a better chance of winning. Or at least competing at a level high enough to have their issues and positions front-and-center.
Footnote: Tommy drops out, too.
I don't see Al Gore getting in. I don't see Edwards getting out, either, as right now he's the only candidate beating Hillary in a key early state--Iowa.
ReplyDeleteIowa is overrated, and is important for a few ticks of the primary campaign clock.
ReplyDeleteThe bigger states' primaries are a better indication of where the campaigns are headed than a small, caucus state.
Edwards is doing well raising money...
ReplyDeleteHa ha ha.... John Edwards isn't getting out. Fundraising is going well, endorsements are rolling in, and he's leading in Iowa.
ReplyDeleteHere's who definitely gets out BEFORE John Edwards: Dodd and Biden.
Keep in mind that when John Edwards gets out (if he gets out), his political career is over. He has no reason to end it prematurely.
I like Edwards, by the way. I just don't think he can sustain his campaign. We'll see. That's the deal with predictions.
ReplyDeleteReally? You'd put money on John Edwards getting out early?
ReplyDeleteI'll take that action!
Trust me: John Edwards isn't getting out. He's the front runner in Iowa, and if he wins here, then he's got a real shot at 2nd in New Hampshire. In that event, with the February 5 primaries looming, the likelihood is that Obama or Clinton goes before Edwards, because neither of them could survive a 3rd place showing in New Hampshire.
I'm not saying Edwards will end up with the nomination, but he's in this for the long haul. He's not dropping out this year, by any stretch of the imagination.
(Note: I am not a declared supporter of Edwards or any other candidate at this point).
iPol: the Personal Pronoun, as applied to politics.
http://ipol-2008.blogspot.com
I'm not supporting anyone, yet.
ReplyDeleteAs I said, I like Edwards. I just think the dynamics of the campaign - - money, primary schedules, competition - - will eventually lead him to stepping aside.
One of the earlier comments says that if he were to leave, his career is over.
Now that's a prediction! - - and one with which I do not agree.
Politicians that young and substantive do not think that way.
The Edwards campaign is having good results with its fund raising. You would be hard-pressed to find two people more committed to their campaign than John & Elizabeth Edwards.
ReplyDelete