Why there's hope after today's Marquette Poll
The MU poll gives Walker fifty.
His nervous backers say that's nifty.
But Walker's donors were still too gifty.
Sending Doe-disclosed checks was hardly thifty.
And the mining donation was downright grifty.
So all in all, Walker remains shifty.
An at-risk incumbent still stuck at fifty.
His nervous backers say that's nifty.
But Walker's donors were still too gifty.
Sending Doe-disclosed checks was hardly thifty.
And the mining donation was downright grifty.
So all in all, Walker remains shifty.
An at-risk incumbent still stuck at fifty.
8 comments:
At 50 with a month to go? It's over. Especially with voter ID.
Is it possible that the Marquette poll includes a larger number Republican voters, which might account for the more favorable Walker numbers? (I thought I read that the number of Republicans sampled was increased for the 9/11-14/2014 Marquette poll.)
They've claiming Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats. Don't buy it. It's still a toss up race.
Agree with the last 2. GOPs are massively oversampled. Do you think an electorate will be GOP +4.6% when it was Dem +1 in a GOP wave year like 2010? Exactly.
This race is basically even, and that's with Burke coming off probably her worst week with hoards of GOP-aganda being thrown at her.
Let's see if Chucky Franklin makes an "adjustment" to reflect reality in 2 weeks. Bet he will, because he can't keep doing the J-S's dirty work at the expense of his credibility in the final polls.
From the Marquette ULP of Oct. 2012: "Milwaukee, Wis. – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds President Barack Obama leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in Wisconsin. Five percent remain undecided or declined to state a preference, while 1 percent said that they would vote for a third party. Two weeks ago, before the second and third presidential debates, the poll found Obama at 49 percent to Romney’s 48 percent." I hope Burke is practicing for the debates.
I wrote the post about the Oct. 2012 poll. MUL polled more than double the people for the 2012 poll - "The poll of both landline and cell phone users was conducted October 25-28 (2012). The November matchups, issues and candidate image questions are based on a sample of 1,243 likely voters and have a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Other results are based on 1,404 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points." For the current poll he surveyed 585 likely voters and 805 registered voters. The Gravis poll surveyed 908 registered voters.
Hmmm, funny how the race "narrowed" to 1 around this time but "expanded" to 8 by the time the election rolled around. And it just happened to be near right (Obama won by 7).
Which again makes me wonder if there's a "sample adjustment" that'll be made in the next poll.
If by sample adjustment you mean they take a larger sample I would hope so. It almost looks like they stopped as soon as they got the distribution they wanted - Walker ahead with likely voters by just over the error. I'm not a statistician but when the sample size is so much smaller it makes me wonder.
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